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中文摘要：
从系统论的观点,结合突发洪水应急决策特点,分析非常规突发洪水灾害发生发展过程中突发事件、承灾载体、环境单元及应急活动各要素及要素间关系,基于知识元理论,建立突发事件、承灾载体、环境单元及应急活动等知识元模型,构建基于知识元的多层次情景表达模型。以淮河流域2007年洪水灾害片段为实例,应用情景模型对非常规突发洪水应急情景进行完整表达,并实现应急情景态势转化及推演分析。
英文摘要：
According to the character of unconventional flood emergencies decision, this paper analyses the element and rela- tions of emergency event, hazard bearing body, environment and emergency action in the flood development and progression from system viewpoint. Based on knowledge element theory, knowledge element models of emergency event, hazard bearing body, environment and emergency action are built, and multilevel emergencies scenario model is generated. An Example of flood over Huaihe Valley in 2007, unconventional flood emergency scenario is generated completely by the scenario model, and scenario transformation and evolution is also analyzed.
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