根据我国1-6次人口普查的主要统计数据,应用GSM(1,2)线性模型进行模拟,其拟合精度令人满意;同时以每十年为一普查期,应用GSM(1,1)线性模型对我国未来人口发展进行了预测,并分析了模型产生误差的原因,提出了提高模型预测精度的方法.
Based on the main statistic data of 1-6 national population census, simulated by using GSM(1,2) linear model, the fitting accuracy obtained is satisfied. Meanwhile, ac- cording to the census period, this paper predicts future population development of China by using GSM(1,1) linear model, and analyses the reasons of producing error of the model, then proposes effective ways to improve model prediction precision.