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中文摘要：
由于混凝土收缩徐变具有显著的不确定性，需要采用随机方法进行有概率保证意义的长期变形分析。采用基于响应面的蒙特卡洛抽样技术，将GL2000模型中影响长期变形的因素作为随机变量，建立了预应力混凝土梁的长期变形随机性分析模型。利用该模型对某预应力混凝土简支梁开展了长期变形随机分析，同时对模型中各个随机变量进行了敏感性分析与参数分析。结果表明，对长期变形有较大影响的随机变量有：徐变模型的不确定性，弹性模量模型的不确定性，二期恒载值的不确定性，张拉控制应力值的不确定性；为抑制梁体长期变形，施工控制中应严格控制张拉应力精度与推迟二恒加载时间。
英文摘要：
Owing to the randomness of shrinkage and creep of concrete, random analysis method should be adopted to give a reasonable result with probabilistic guarantee. Stochastic variables for long-term analysis with GL2000 model about creep and shrinkage of concrete were presented. Combining Monte Carlo sampling with the response surface method, the stochastic analysis model was performed which is on timevariant deflection of prestressed concrete bridge. The long-term deflection of a prestressed concrete bridge was analyzed by this model. Sensitivity analysis and parametric study were carried out. And the uncertainty of creep model, elastic modulus of concrete, magnitude of sustained load, and prestress forces are the most important factors for long-term deflection. Furthermore, controlling accuracy of prestress forces and delaying the loading time are helpful to inhibit long-term deflection.
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