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中文摘要：
文章针对水资源承载力的评价,综合社会、经济、生态和水资源的复合系统来构建评价体系,并从物理性和经济性角度分析水资源稀缺状况,建立模糊综合评价模型、灰色预测模型;同时运用Matlab软件求解得出山东省近10年的水资源承载力水平,并预测未来15年水资源承载力的发展趋势,发现山东省现处于重度缺水状态,若不加以治理未来15年将会步入水资源过度短缺阶段。
英文摘要：
This article is about the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity. From the point of physical scarcity and economic scarcity,we took social,economy,ecology and water composite system into consideration. We established fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and grey prediction model,and used MATLAB software to water resources carrying capacity in Shandong Province,and forecast the development trend of water resources carrying capacity in the next fifteen years. The results showed that Shandong province was now in a state of severe water shortage,even worse if not take action Shandong province would step into the stage of excessive water resources shortage.
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