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中文摘要：
旅游目的地选择一直是旅游管理研究的核心命题之一，整个选择过程是系统分量（目的地属性）和随机分量（游客特性）共同作用的结果。本文以2008年5～6月在北京、上海、广州等三大航空枢纽口岸采集到的第一手意愿性数据为基础，构建了一个二项Logistic离散选择回归模型．系统分析了影响入境游客西向扩散的影响因素，认为游客的职业、旅华时间、家庭结构、旅游方式、结伴方式、旅游动机、旅华花费、入境口岸、受到尊重等特性显著影响其西扩的概率。同时，该模型具有较好的预测功能，准确率达到72．5％，对于我国区域旅游联合，特别是西部地区开拓国际客源市场具有重要指导意义。
英文摘要：
Choice of tourism destinations has always been one of the key topics in the study of tourism management. The whole process of choice is commonly influenced by systematic component （destination attribute） and random component （tourist property）. The paper, with the first-hand data of sampling survey collected from inbound tourists of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in May-June, 2008, constructs a Logistic Dispersed Choice Regression Model to systematically analyze the affecting factors that influence tourists＇ westward dispersion. The study finds that tourists＇ occupation, time of stay in China, family structure, ways of travel, ways of companions, travel motive, travel expenses, entry port and degree of respect are probability that affects transit tourists＇ westward travel remarkably. Meanwhile, the model is of better predictive function. Its accurate rate reaches 72.5 %. This is of instructive significance to China＇s regional tourism unity, especially in the development of international tourism-generating market in western regions.
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