根据珠江三角洲网河区及口门位置的四个验潮站38年的月均水位资料,利用小波方法分析水位的周期性变动成分,同时结合重标极差法与Mann-Kendall法对水位变动的持续性及趋势性进行研究,通过对比网河区与口门位置水位变动的异同,揭示珠江口海平面的变化特征。研究表明,1957-1994年间,珠江口海平面存在2~8a的显著周期性变动,以及10a和20a左右的周期性变动。珠江口的海平面变化具有明显的持续性,且越靠近口门,这种持续性越明显。珠江口的海平面变化总体为上升趋势,上升速度介于1.6~4.0mm/a。
On the basis of monthly average water level data of 38 years from four tidal stations located in the network of waterways or nearby the estuary of Pearl River,the wavelet method is utilized to analyze the cyclical-fluctuation components of the water level,combined with R/S and Mann-Kendall methods researching on the persistence and trend.The contrast between the network of waterways and the estuary shows the characteristics of the sea level in the estuary of Pearl River.It's concluded that,during the years between 1957 and 1994,there was mainly a 2-8 a cyclical-fluctuation component existing in the sea level of the estuary of Pearl River,also including more or less 10a and 20a cyclical-fluctuations.Changes of the sea level showed a remarkable persistence.Furthermore,it would be more persistent when it was closer to the estuary mouth.Generally speaking,the trend of the water level in the estuary of Pearl River was ascending,and the speed ranged from 1.6 to 4.0 mm/a.