针对当前我国风力发电产业出现的问题和风险现状,基于随机性理论和动态规划方法,建立了风电项目投资决策模型。该模型综合考虑了风电项目投资的各种不确定性风险因素。并经算例分析表明该模型可为风电开发商选择合适的投资时机提供决策参考,还可作为政策制定者制定合理投资政策的量化分析工具。
According to the current problems and risks of wind power industry in China,based on stochastic theory and dynamic programming methods,the investment decision-making model of wind power project was established.The all kinds of uncertainties risk factors of wind power project investment were synthetically considered in this mod-el.The example analysis showed that the model could be used to provide decision-making reference for wind power developers to choose the right investment opportunities,and it also could be used as the quantitative analysis tool for the policy makers to make reasonable investment policies.