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中文摘要：
发电容量投资的周期性波动不仅对于电力工业意味着巨大的浪费，影响到输电项目的扩容规划和投资评价，甚至还可能会危及系统的供电可靠性。通过建立发电侧市场的动态模拟模型，选取发电侧市场的多种典型情景研究分析了单一能量机制和容量费用机制下发电投资和市场供需的周期性波动问题。进一步，以容量费用机制为例分析并认为，对于容量电价应当由政府还是市场制定的问题，其核心在于政府或市场能否完全或者在一定程度上替代对方，引导充裕的发电投资和稳定的市场供需。
英文摘要：
The periodic fluctuation of generation investment brings gigantic cost to the electricity sector, complicates the transmission expansion planning and investment evaluation, and poses a threat to power system reliability. This paper builds a dynamic simulation model of generation capacity investment, and applies it to several cases to analyze the periodic fluctuation problem under mechanisms of energy-only market and capacity payment. Furthermore, this paper chooses the capacity payment mechanism as an example, and proves that whether the capacity price be made purely by market or government depends on the extent to which one could substitute the other in assuring generation investment adequacy and market capacity margin.
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