碳锁定效应是经济被锁定在以碳基技术为主体的技术体系之中,它会造成发展的不可持续,其形成的原因主要有技术、组织、社会制度等。文章分析了碳锁定效应的作用机制,从技术层面、技术制度综合作用、正向反馈机制三个角度进行阐述。碳解锁的路径主要集中在四个方面:第一,通过成本收益核算,以经济的方式解锁;第二,根据其形成原因,从技术制度角度解锁;第三,从受众角度,通过利益主体广泛、深入参与的方式解锁;第四,通过突发性事件刺激的方式解锁。研究对中国的启示在于:一是区分好的锁定与坏的锁定,把握“锁定红利”;二是碳锁定是“技术-制度-偏好”共同作用造成的,其解锁过程需要全部主体共同参与。
Carbon lock-in effect which will result in unsustainable development means that economy is locked into carbon- based technology as the main technology system. Technology, organization and social system are the main reasons of carbon lock-in. This paper analyzes the mechanism of action of carbon lock-in effect. It was elaborated in three angles which include a technical level, the combined effects of Techno-Institutional, positive feedback mechanism. And the current road to carbon lock-out focused on the following four areas. Firstly, it is an economical way to carbon lock-out which is through cost-benefit accounting; secondly, according to its causes, it unlocks the system from a technical point of view; thirdly, from the perspective of the audiences, it makes carbon lock-out through a wide range and involve in-depth of stakeholders; fourthly, it lock-outs by unexpected events. Finally, the paper proposes that we should distinguish good lock-in from bad lock-in, and hold the lock-in profits. In addition, the carbon lock-in is caused by the combined effect of technologyinstitution-preferences, so the carbon lock-out requires all stakeholders to participate in.