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中文摘要：
为了掌握邻近铁路基坑变形趋势,提高预测精度,保证基坑施工顺利进行和铁路运营安全,针对灰色预测模型存在 的不足,提出对常规Verhulst新陈代谢模型加以改进,构建Verhulst动态新陈代谢模型,对邻近铁路基坑变形进行预测,并 与灰色GM（1, 1）模型、灰色Verhulst模型和常规Verhulst新陈代谢模型的预测精度对比.研究结果表明,Verhulst动态新陈代 谢模型的预测精度更高.并且随着新信息的引入和旧信息的剔除,预测更加接近最新变化趋势.Verhulst动态新陈代谢模型 为此类基坑的变形预测提供方法.
英文摘要：
In order to ensure the successful construction of foundation pit and safe operation of railway, the deformation trend of foundation pit should be grasped and the predicting precision should be improved. In view of the shortcomings of the grey prediction model, the paper improved the conventional Verhulst metabolic model and constructed Verhulst dynamic metabolic model. Then the deformation of the foundation pit near by the railway was predicted and compared with the grey GM（1,1） model, grey Verhulst model and conventional Verhulst metabolic model. Results show, the Verhuslt dynamic metabolism model has a higher predicting precision. With the introduction of the newest information and the elimination of the oldest information, the prediction is closer to the latest trend. The Verhulst dynamic metabolic model can provide a method for the similar foundation pit deformation predict.
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