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中文摘要：
针对目前高电压技术与输电线路运行可靠性研究相分离的现状，建立了考虑污闪影响的输电线路运行风险评估理论。首先基于一定工作电压下绝缘子的污闪概率模型及条件概率原理得出污闪下线路发生某种故障的概率：其次将污闪严重度定义为污闪电压越限严重度函数、污闪频率越限严重度函数和污闪过负荷严重度函数的加权和并得出系统污闪下各输电线路的运行风险值；最后依据输电线路的风险指标值进行排序，并利用模糊C均值分类法（fuzzy C-means，FCM）将输电线路分成三大类，分别对应着3个辅助决策（不计成本爬／扫／涂，针对性爬／扫／涂，可缓爬／扫／涂）。通过WSCC．9电力系统经典模型算例，进行相关计算仿真，结果验证了该理论的正确性和有效性。
英文摘要：
Focusing on the fact that high voltage technologies are developed independently from the research on reliability of transmission lines, an operation risk assessment theory and an index system for transmission line operation considering pollution flashover were established. First, based on a pollution flashover probability model for insulators under certain operation voltage and conditional probability, the fault probability of transmission lines was obtained. Second, the pollution flashover severity was defined as the weighted sum of the severities of voltage limit violation, frequency limit violation and overload; and all risk indexes of transmission lines were simulated and calculated. Finally, all the indexes were sorted; and through fuzzy C-means （FCM） the lines were classified into three types, and each one respectively corresponded to an assistant decision-making i.e. adjustment of ereepage distance/clean/paint regardless of cost, pertinent adjustment of creepage distance/clean/paint and delayed adjustment of creepage distance/clean/paint. Calculation and simulation results of the WSCC-9 test system verified the correctness and efficiency of the theory.
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