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中文摘要：
建立了计及径流调节的梯级水电站最大出力模型和计及随机故障的水电机组可用容量概率模型，然后应用时历法进行梯级水电站发电能力的评估，并用一座简单二级水电站做算例分析。所用方法有效地解决了梯级水电站机组出力的水系相关性和随机故障的独立性问题。
英文摘要：
The model of maximum power of cascade hydropower station considering flow regulation and the probability model of available capability of hydropower units considering random outages are established. Time Series Method is applied to assess the generation capability of cascade hydropower station, which is then performed on a two cascade hydropower station. The proposed method is effective for dealing with the hydro-dependency and the independence of random outages of hydropower units in cascade hydropower station.
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