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中文摘要：
针对目前配电网可靠性预控管理中存在的目标值分解方式过于粗糙和不能按线路分解的问题，提出了一种新颖的配电线路可靠性预控管理方法，通过设备、技术、管理和规划等预控措施预测设备可靠性基础参数的变化趋势，定量评估配电线路的可靠性指标，并根据线路的可靠性指标预测值进行可靠性预控目标值的分解。通过简单算例阐述了模型的建立与指标分解的过程。
英文摘要：
The methods of objective indices decomposition used in the reliability pre-control management for distribution networks are loose and can not provide pre-control indices to the distribution lines. This paper describes a novel reliability pre-control management method for distribution lines based on pre-controlling measures of apparatus, technology, management and planning. The basic device reliability parameters are predicted, which are used to evaluate the reliability indices of each distribution lines by quantitative analysis methods. The predictive indices are used to decompose the pre-controlling indices. The proposed model and methods are proved on a simple test system.
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