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中文摘要：
作为我国重要的粮食生产基地, 华北平原的最主要灌溉水源是地下水.但是, 从山前平原到滨海平原, 该区地下水资源量差异巨大.为了揭示华北平原典型井灌区粮食生产地下水保障能力的差异, 以山前平原保定、中部平原德州和滨海平原沧州地区井灌区为典型研究区, 建立了地下水保障能力评价指标体系, 并利用彭曼公式计算了粮食作物灌溉需水量, 利用概率统计的方法分析了三个典型地区的地下水保障程度.研究结果表明： 保定地区的粮食生产多年平均地下水保障能力为中等水平, 德州和沧州地区均处于极弱水平; 地下水保障程度随降水量增大呈直线增大, 降水量每增加100 mm, 保定地区保障程度增加4. 9%, 德州地区增加1. 6%, 沧州地区增加0. 6%; 未来50 年（ 2011 年- 2060 年） , 保定、德州和沧州地区的地下水保障程度均符合对数正态分布, 其中保定地区主概率对应中等水平, 概率水平为0. 726, 德州和沧州地区主概率均对应极弱水平, 发生概率分别为0. 577 和1.
英文摘要：
North China Plain( NCP) is an important grain product ion base in China, and groundwater is the main irrigation w ater resource. However, groundwater resource has significantly spatial variation. In order to reveal the spatial variation of groundw a-ter guarantee extent for grain production in NCP, an evaluation index system of groundwater guarantee extent w as developed on the basis of three t ypical regions including Baoding of pediment plain, Dezhou of central plain, and Cangzhou of coastal plain. The crop w at er requirements in the three typical regions w ere calculated using penman equation, and groundwat er guarantee ex-tents were analyzed using the statist ical evaluation method. T he results indicated that the annual average groundwater guarantee extent for grain production is the middle level in Baoding while the inferior level in Dezhou and Cangzhou; groundwater guaran-tee extent increases with t he increasing of precipitation, and it can increase by 4. 9% in Baoding, 1. 6% in Dezhou, and 0. 6% in Cangzhou wit h the increasing of 100 mm precipitation; and groundwater guarant ee ext ents of Baoding, Dezhou, and Cangzhou are in the logarithmic normal dist ribution in the future 50 years( 2011 to 2060) , and the main probability of Baoding corresponds to the middle level w ith the probabilit y of 0. 726 w hile the main probability of Dezhou and Cangzhou corresponds to the extremely inferior level w ith the probability of 0. 577 and 1, respectively.
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